Maghreb Disunion: Morocco and Algeria’s Divergent Strategies in Shaping Future Regional Geopolitics

Two recent moves underscore the evolving power dynamics in North Africa and the Sahel, reflecting the deepening rivalry between Morocco and Algeria, rooted in the Western Sahara conflict and differing foreign policies. Morocco continues to promote economic integration with its latest initiative to link the Sahel countries to the Atlantic Ocean as part of an overall proactive strategy to expand its regional influence. 

Conversely, Algeria  announced a new advisory bloc with Tunisia and Libya—a move excluding Morocco and Mauritania—which illustrates Algeria's insular, defensive stance driven by political rivalries rather than cooperative opportunities. This contrast highlights the differing strategies and underscores Morocco's strengthening position in regional competition, a trend that is becoming increasingly evident.

Morocco’s win-win strategy

In November 2023, Moroccan King Mohammed VI launched the Atlantic Initiative to promote access to the Atlantic Ocean for the Sahel states. The project seeks to boost Sahel economies and regional security by leveraging Moroccan infrastructure, introducing advanced agriculture and solar energy projects, and improving education, vocational training, and healthcare services. Discussed further during a ministerial meeting a month later in Marrakesh, it focuses on landlocked nations such as Mali, Niger, Chad, and Burkina Faso, as well as Mauritania, a country crucial to Sahel cooperation despite not being landlocked.

Morocco’s Sahel Atlantic initiative can be seen as the culmination of a strategic shift from isolation to proactive engagement in African affairs

Morocco’s Sahel Atlantic initiative can be seen as the culmination of a strategic shift from isolation to proactive engagement in African affairs, catalyzed by its return to the African Union in 2017. Morocco’s African comeback ended a period of diplomatic isolation following its withdrawal from the Organization of African Unity (OAU) in 1984, protesting the OAU's recognition of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, which claims sovereignty over Western Sahara—a territory also claimed by Morocco. During that time, with its support for liberation movements and substantial economic resources from oil revenues, Algeria positioned itself advantageously, particularly where Morocco's diplomatic absence was notable.

Since its return to the African stage, Morocco has expanded its influence through corporate growth, diplomatic initiatives, and security engagements. Major Moroccan corporations like Attijariwafa Bank, Maroc Telecom, and the Royal Office Chérifien des Phosphates (OCP) have expanded their operations, positioning Morocco as a leading African investor in banking, telecommunications, and construction. Morocco has strengthened its diplomatic outreach by inaugurating newembassies and engaging in high-profile state visits led by King Mohammed VI, resulting in numerous bilateral agreements. Morocco has also become a key player in counterterrorism and security, providing military training and intelligence support to Sahel countries. Additionally, it has leveraged its religious heritage to counter radical ideologies by training imams and promoting religious education.

Morocco's recent entry into the energy sector, traditionally dominated by Algeria through the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP), represents another significant shift. This move challenges Algeria's stronghold on energy exports by connecting Nigerian gas directly to Europe, bypassing Algerian territory. Although newer, the NMGP has outpaced Algeria's long-established TSGP in feasibility studies and regional cooperation. This maneuver underscores Morocco's broader ambitions to reshape its geopolitical standing and expand its influence across regional and global energy markets.

Venturing beyond its traditional geostrategic sphere, Morocco has engaged with regions in East and Southern Africa. This includes significant economic projects, like a major fertilizer plant in Ethiopia and Nigeria, and enhanced trade relations with Kenya and Zambia. Morocco aims to shift regional allegiances through these initiatives, subtly influencing perceptions to garner support for its diplomatic agenda.

Algeria’s isolation

In April 2024, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Tunisian President Kais Saied, and Libyan President Mohamed Al Menfi convened a summit in Tunis to revitalize the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), notably excluding Morocco and Mauritania. Algerian leaders emphasized that this union is not aimed against any nation, presenting it as open to all regional countries to address the perceived inactivity of the AMU—despite Algeria having refused to pay dues for many years, which has undermined the very institution it laments.

The emergence of this new alliance offers a revealing glimpse into the state of geopolitical affairs in the North African region. It reflects the recent rapprochement between Algeria and Tunisia, precipitated by Tunisia's economic challenges, which has led to a closer alignment, positioning Tunisia in a dependent relationship with Algeria. Amid the Morocco-Algeria rivalry, Libya navigates a complex internal situation with a dual foreign policy: joining the new Maghreb bloc while advocating, via its envoy Sami Al Menfi to King Mohammed VI, for Morocco's inclusion in revitalizing AMU. Mauritania, preferring to maintain a neutral stance, stands out for its adherence to AMU. This commitment paradoxically led to its exclusion from the new Maghreb union configuration.

This Algerian “inward” pivot attempts to realign regional alliances and counter Morocco's increasing influence in the Sahel

This Algerian “inward” pivot attempts to realign regional alliances and counter Morocco's increasing influence in the Sahel, particularly through its latest Atlantic access initiative that it perceives as encircling maneuvers. By proposing a new union, Algeria seeks to reassert its influence and counterbalance Morocco's expanding diplomatic and economic outreach. In what appears to be other countermeasures, Algeria unveiled plans in February 2024 to develop "free trade zones" with Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Tunisia, and Libya to enhance infrastructure and bolster economic relations. Additionally, the Algerian government announced the suspension of loans provided to nations that engage with Morocco's Sahel initiative in an attempt to influence the shifting dynamics.

As Morocco advances its Sahel Atlantic access initiative, Algeria's long-standing role as a regional stabilizer and mediator is already being tested by geostrategic changes that are not in its favor. The reconfiguration of new security alliances by Niger and Burkina Faso signifies a major shift, potentially diminishing Algeria's influence and its role in regional efforts. Additionally, the termination of the 2015 Algiers Accord by Mali over allegations of Algerian interference with Tuareg separatists, and rising tensions with Niger over the treatment of Sub-Saharan migrants, particularly following Niger's repeal of anti-trafficking laws, have strained relations and complicated Algeria’s efforts to manage border security and stability in the Sahel landscape.

To grasp the contrasting strategies of Algeria and Morocco, it is essential to understand the main drivers of their foreign policy. 

Rigidity vs pragmatism

To grasp the contrasting strategies of Algeria and Morocco, it is essential to understand the main drivers of their foreign policy. Algeria's military-dominated doctrine fosters a rigid, uncompromising stance prioritizing narrow geopolitical interests over economic collaboration. Algeria's unwavering support for the Polisario movement in Western Sahara, a central tenet of its foreign policy, has complicated its alliances and impeded regional cooperation and economic integration. For example, Algeria responded to Spain's policy shift favoring Morocco on the issue by recalling its ambassador, halting trade, and suspending a longstanding friendship treaty.

Another example of Algeria’s exclusionary policy toward Morocco is its decision to cut diplomatic ties, suspend air transport, and shut down the Maghreb-Europe Gas Pipeline—actions justified by Morocco's normalization of relations with Israel. This seems inconsistent given Algeria's friendly relations with Bahrain, another country that has normalized ties with Israel. These actions have economic repercussions for both Morocco and Algeria, limiting opportunities for trade and mutual growth and creating economic and logistical barriers affecting the entire region.

Conversely, Morocco has adopted a pragmatic and reform-oriented approach, focusing on progressive economic liberalization, modernization, and global integration. This strategy extends to its foreign policy, where Morocco seeks to build alliances, enhance trade, and promote regional stability through cooperation and diplomacy. Morocco's inclusive and proactive engagement in regional initiatives and numerous calls for reconciliation with Algeria exemplify its commitment to prioritizing regional unity and development. This pragmatic and collaborative approach has significantly boosted Morocco's regional presence and influence in Africa, allowing it to lead in economic projects and political initiatives across the continent.

Looking into the future, as the African continent moves towards greater economic pragmatism and sheds ideological relics of the past, Algeria is on a path of further isolation, making it unable to promote or benefit from regional integration. Prospects are increasingly bleak with the eventual depletion of oil revenues, making it more difficult to shape regional politics as it desires, especially with an inflexible, outdated mindset. 

Recognizing the distinct approaches of the two countries is crucial for regional actors and international partners as they navigate the complex dynamics of North Africa and the Sahel. In this context, Morocco's role as a catalyst for development and stabilization presents a compelling opportunity for collaboration and progress, ensuring a more prosperous and secure future for the region and the continent.

 The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not express the official position of the Wilson Center.