The Future of France's Far-Right Party

Marine Le Pen, the French far-right leader, was convicted of embezzlement by a criminal court in Paris on March 31, which banned her from running for president in 2027 and deepened a political crisis that threatens to topple the Fifth Republic created nearly seven decades ago by Charles de Gaulle.

Judges sentenced Le Pen to four years in prison and barred her from seeking public office for the next five years. Half of her jail term was suspended and judges said she could serve the remaining two years by wearing an electronic bracelet to avoid jail time.  She was also fined 100,000 euros ($108,000).

Le Pen and her National Rally party were accused of illegally taking nearly $5 million in European Parliament funds over a decade to pay party workers to perform tasks unrelated to EU business.  The court ruled Le Pen had played a “central role” in siphoning funds to her party when it was in desperate financial straits. 

The presiding judge said the gravity of the case required a stiff sentence despite the potential political consequences because nobody is entitled to “immunity in violation of the rule of law.” Le Pen left the courtroom before judges had finished reading her sentence, looking angry and murmuring “incredible” as she departed.

The verdict threatens further turmoil in a country where President Emmanuel Macron’s fragile centrist government could be brought down at any time by legislators in the National Assembly, where Le Pen’s party holds the largest bloc of votes.  Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s 29 year-old protégé and likely presidential candidate in her absence, declared “not only has Marine Le Pen been unjustly convicted, it’s French democracy that’s being executed.”

The ruling leaves the 2027 presidential race in France wide open. Opinion polls showed Le Pen well ahead with as much as 37 percent of the vote, ten points ahead of her nearest rival. Macron is term-limited and cannot run again.  The leading candidate from his centrist coalition is former prime minister Edouard Philippe, who consistently ranks as one of the most popular politicians in France.

Le Pen vowed to challenge the verdict on appeal hoping to get back in the race, but the process is slow and tedious in France. Legal experts say it will be extremely difficult to overturn the prosecution’s case before the election.